Thursday, January 30, 2025

The Problem With Billboard's Chart Methodology (SNS week of 1/26/2025)

 YES, I KNOW, I said I would stop talking about the Billboard Hot 100 chart last week, but unlike recent blogs (and I'd really rather talk about something else), this edition isn't about what's in the top ten, but rather, WHY it's (still) in the top ten.


The Billboard Hot 100, the "standard" chart used in popular music, has come under fire recently for the sameness and relative lack of turnover of songs.


Here is a look at Billboard's Top 16 on the Hot 100 for week ending February 2, 2025.    That's Groundhog Day, by the way, and the chart for the past few months, like the movie of the same name, seem to be the same songs over and over again.

1. Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars - Die With a Smile

2. Bad Bunny - DTMF

3. ROSE and Bruno Mars - APT.

4. Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy)

5. Kendrick Lamar and SZA - Luther

6. Billie Eilish - Birds of a Feather

7. Teddy Swims - Lose Control

8. Gracie Abrams - That's So True

9. Bad Bunny - Balle Inolvidable

10. Morgan Wallen - Love Somebody

11. Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso

12. Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen - I Had Some Help

13. Kendrick Lamar featuring Lefty Gunplay

14. Sabrina Carpenter - Taste

15. Bad Bunny - Nuevayol

16. Benson Boone - Beautiful Things.


I put sixteen songs in there to make a point.   And while there are relatively newer songs in there, namely the Bad Bunny and Kendrick Lamar entries, and the Gracie Abrams is relatively new, (and I will even give a pass to "APT", and "Love Somebody") everything else has been there forever, it seems.   And while I am glad that "Die With a Smile" is still on top for a fourth week, it's been on the chart 22 weeks, mostly in the top 10.    "A Bar Song" is still #4 and appears to not be going anywhere.    Nineteen weeks at #1, and nobody's tired of it yet?     And don't get me started on "Lose Control", moving up two notches in its 75th week, and "Beautiful Things" completing a year on the chart and still moving up two notches to 16.     And isn't it time to move on from "Birds of a Feather" and the two Sabrina Carpenter tracks?  

These artists have follow-ups which seem to be ignored.   Did you know Shaboozey released a follow-up, "Good News"?  It's down at #62 after peaking at #47.    Lady Gaga had a follow-up to "Die", "Disease".  It's not even on the chart, dropping off after a few weeks.   Teddy Swims?   "The Door", the follow-up to "Lose Control" is way down there at #57, its peak thus far.    "Bad Dreams" had made just two appearances on the chart and still not on there this week.    He does appear in a duet with GIVEON with "Are You Real"(#74), but his country duet with Thomas Rhett, "Somethin' 'Bout a Women" is nowhere to be found.   And while Sabrina Carpenter HAS had three songs in the upper part of the chart (two of them still there), "Bed Chem" is only at #35.   Billie Eilish has had two hits recently, but where is the third song "Chiriro"?  It debuted at #12 and disappeared.  

Many of these follow-ups are actually doing well on airplay charts.   "Bad Dreams" is #17 on the Top 40 airplay chart, for example.

So, why are those top songs rarely moving down the charts after months atop the charts?   Are people such stick in the muds that they listen to the same songs over and over again?    Well, you can blame chart methodology for that.

The Hot 100 has three components.   Radio airplay, digital sales, and streaming.   Out of the three, digital sales, though decreasing, probably is the most accurate measure, or at least in line with the past: Once you buy a song, it counts on the charts, and that's it, no matter how many times you play it.    Radio stations run their playlists sort of the same way as mine, adding a record, gradually increasing plays on it, then appropriately decreasing it after its peak (although it has a tendency to play recurrents ad infinitum, which, thanks to the Billboard recurrent rule, doesn't count after a certain time limit on the charts).   

Billboard's recurrent rule is sort of a saving grace, where songs amassing 26 weeks or more, are removed if they drop below #50, and those 52 weeks or more get removed when they drop under the #25 position.    But that's pretty much the saving grace.

But the real culprit is streaming.     While people like me maintain a playlist, of which my Scenes 'n' Soundwaves 100 is based on, the average Spotify listener, for example, doesn't do that, preferring to request a streaming app to simply play canned playlists such as "today's hits".   Since all these top songs are on it, they come up in rotation, and in turn, count as a stream towards the following week's chart.    It's a vicious cycle.....a song becomes a hit when it's streamed a lot, makes the top part of the chart, and as a result, it still gets played a lot, keeping it up there, as long as a canned playlist is requested on the streamer.

While streaming is the big culprit, you have to go back 34 years to when the Billboard chart started using both Soundscan (for physical sales) and Broadcast Data Systems (to detect the number of times a radio station plays a song) to complete the charts.   Before that, radio stations would compile their playlists based on both local sales and requests to create a survey, which is submitted to Billboard. Only two songs in the pre Soundscan/Broadcast Data Systems were able to attain ten weeks at #1.    That threshold has been broken so many times since then.   If Shaboozey doesn't hit 20 weeks with "A Bar Song", then Mariah Carey will next holiday season.     The vicious cycle started because radio kept playing the hits (based on chart position), which in turn kept the songs up top from all those detections, which in turn was played by radio stations, which then kept the song on top, ad infinitum.   

While the chart compilation nowadays is more accurate, with songs debuting high or leaping and falling from week to week, the fact that listeners just request the same playlists week after week keep those songs on top, and I'm sure many of those songs have worn out with listeners.     If there was a way to not include these canned playlists from computations, that could work; the songs that would count towards the chart would be from those who make their own playlists and exclude those playlists that were based on last week's charts.   I think that would help immensely, since the songs on the personal playlists would reflect coming trends.

I do have one more beef with the Billboard charts, that being the individual format/genre charts like R&B/Hip Hop, Rock, Country, and Alternative, to name a few of the "Songs" charts, which instead of being based on format-specific airplay or genre-specific streaming, are instead based on how they stand on the Hot 100.    Also, a genre of a song is determined by some chart person's opinion, and not whether a song is getting airplay in a certain format.    As a result, "A Bar Song" by Shaboozey has been #1 on the "Country Songs" for 32 weeks and counting because it's the highest-ranked song in that genre on the Hot 100.  While yes, it is indeed a country song, it has pretty much run its course in the format.  Looking at the Country Airplay chart, of which Morgan Wallen's "Love Somebody" heads the list, "A Bar Song" dropped completely off the chart, although it remains #10 on the Radiowave Monitor airplay chart.

Let's look at the Rock and Alternative Songs chart, a format which rarely gets its due because of the scarcity of songs in that genre on the Hot 100 these days.  The Rock Songs #1 is Hozier's "Too Sweet", another song that has stuck to the top of the Hot 100.  It's not on the Active Rock airplay listing at all, and I'm sure those who still follow new rock aren't considering Hozier a pure rock artist (Alternative is a different story).  Billie Eilish, who IS considered alternative, tops Alternative Songs with "Birds of a Feather".   While that song was on the airplay chart for a while, it's nowhere to be found on the current airplay chart for the format.    Incidentally the #1 song on Alternative Airplay this week is "Can't Slow Down" by Almost Monday.

These "Top Songs", as a result are as redundant as the Hot 100.   Two things need to be done.   The Billboard chart staff shouldn't be the ones to determine what songs should fit where; that should sit with the actual radio stations that add and play these certain songs.   Artists whose songs have had airplay on a format-specific airplay chart should be considered, and streams based on that chart, to determine final position, NOT the Hot 100 as listeners in the pop field, for example, stream the song as a pop song, and not in the alternative (or any genre) field.    And while it is pretty much impossible to figure out which streams of a song come from a listener of one genre versus another, streaming should be a very small percentage of the format-specific chart, or even pro-rated based on its airplay status.

There, I've spoken my peace.


SNS 100: There is movement at the top of my chart this week, as Australian-born Don West, takes the number one position with the beach music-inspired "Small Change", which becomes the first new blog topper of 2025.    It holds a slim lead over Moto Bandit's "Private Pile" which moves 4-2.   Thomas Rhett and Teddy Swims' "Somethin' 'About a Woman" (5-3).  and Monophonics'"Sage Motel" (6-4) are within striking distance.   None of these charts are on any chart, with the Rhett/Swims duet dropping off the country listing recently.  Swims'  "Bad Dreams" rounds out the top five.

Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars' "Die With a Smile", which had a seven-week consecutive run at the top of the SNS 100, drops to #6 despite a top ranking on the Hot 100.   Carolina Beach Music's Pepper Creek enters the top 10 with "We Cruis'n", and Leon Bridges has his first SNS top 10 in seven years as "Laredo" moves 13-10.    

In the second ten, The Palms, Fitz and the Tantrums, and Whiskey-Chitto Ramblers make significant moves towards the top ten, and there are two new entries:   Impact award winner The Beaches, follow-up their blog monster hit "Takes One to Know One" (still at #11), with "Jocelyn" (21-16).  David F. Porfirio returns to the top 20 with his biggest in a while, the western-ish, "Ballad of the Outlaw Logan Landacuna"

The Mover of the Week belongs to the latest by Thee Sacred Souls, "My Heart is Drowning" (59-36).  Sofi Tukker, last week's Top Debut moves 50-35 with "Purple Hat", and Barry Walsh's "Rescue Me" which had last week's Mover and the week prior's Top Debut, moves 44-32.   


Massachusetts band Beach Weather has the Top Debut this week with "Seth Cohen"


DEBUTS;  The highest debut goes to "Seth Cohen" by Beach Weather, coming in at #60, which has already exceeded the band's prior charter, "High in Low Places"  which only got to #69.   Incidentally, their signature song of sorts, 2015's "Sex, Drugs, Etc"., didn't chart here.  "Seth Cohen"  is a cool, sorta-emo-ish, alt-pop confection that hit me hard when I heard it on Sirius XM's "Alt 18" chart.  If you're wondering, Seth Cohen was a character on the TV show The O.C., played by Adam Brody.

While Moon Soul's "I Really Do" has stalled at #52, a stronger song from this neo-soul outfit is "Love Again". It's definitely more soulful, a bit slower and excellently produced, which seems to be the current trend on my chart these days. Such a beautiful song.  "Don't Change" is another great song by them, which I will add in the coming weeks.    

Coming out of left field is the latest by Juliet Callahan, with "YUM".    Perhaps hinted at with the remixed intro and outro version of her previous release "Burning Up", this one is pretty much a bizarre combination of hip-hop, EDM, and even avant-garde.    There are some vocal sounds here, but Ms. Callahan doesn't sing.    Juliet has gone in various directions over the past few years, so it's cool to see an artist trying something new.   The New York -based artist will have another release coming on Valentine's Day, which will be interesting to see what she comes up with next.

Speaking of drastic directions, we have Samzidat's "Plenty of Old Shoes".   This is very much a cool jazzy thing where the members are stretching out and having a good time with this instrumental.    While the song in itself isn't radical by jazz standards, the members of this band are Maria Licata, Richard Bradley and Kev Zed.   If those names are familiar, it's because they are the core members of the Internet collective Einsteins Dad, and this is much different from that band's output.   A very appealing direction for this seemingly "side project", showing the musicians' versatility here.

Also debuting is the latest from veteran neo-punkers The Offspring with the rather understated (at least compared to prior efforts), "OK, But This is the Last Time", but the vibe from them is whatyou've come to expect from them     Cage The Elephant follows the top three "Rainbow" with "Metaverse", speeding things up once again.    The rawness within the alt-rock framework should result in another hit for this long-running band.    Beach outfit Calypso Joe and the Coconuts follow up "Beacha Didn't Know" with "Me Myself and the Blues", and shifting gears from a Jimmy Buffett-style tropical theme to a boogie-woogie rock blues motif, true to the song's title.   The group's mastermind and writer Charlie Sattenfield is in rare form here.

Sam Fender, who made noise with "Spit  of You" a couple years back, enters with the moving, driving "People Watching", Lola Young, making inroads at pop and alternative with "Messy", able to straddle both lanes, Alt-folk Jersey boys The Lumineers with "Same Old Song" is what you'd expect from them, and pretty much in the same vein is Billy Strings "Gild the Lily" with some cool alt-country instrumentation.




Scenes ‘n’ Soundwaves 100 Playlist

January 26, 2025


This Week

Last Week

ARTIST-Title

Weeks on List

1

2

NUMBER ONE:


DON WEST

"Small Change"

Album: Don West (EP)

7

2

4

Moto Bandit - Private Pile

9

3

5

Thomas Rhett ft Teddy Swims - Somethin' 'Bout a Woman

8

4

6

Monophonics - Sage Motel

9

5

3

Teddy Swims - Bad Dreams

16

6

1

Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars - Die With A Smile

20

7

8

Rainy Day Outlaws - I Know

13

8

11

Pepper Creek - We Cruis'n

11

9

9

Morgan Wallen - Love Somebody

11

10

13

Leon Bridges - Laredo

7

11

7

The Beaches - Takes One to Know One

21

12

15

The Palms - Ghost

8

13

18

Fitz and the Tantrums - Steppin' On Me

6

14

20

Whiskey-Chitto Ramblers - Breakdown

10

15

19

Karen O and Danger Mouse - Super Breath

12

16

21

TOP 20 IMPACT OF THE WEEK:


THE BEACHES

"Jocelyn"

(Single Release)

9

17

24

David F. Porfirio - Ballad of the Outlaw Logan Landacuda

9

18

14

Arc De Soleil - Trying to Escape

13

19

10

The Heavy Heavy - Feel

11

20

12

Mighty Saints of Soul - You Don't Know What Love Is

13

21

16

Pip Millett - Hard Life

19

22

26

Sports Team - I'm In Love  (Subaru)

13

23

27

The Pozers - And You Love

8

24

28

Hajej - High No More

9

25

29

The Cynz - Woman Child

10

26

22

Dani Zanoni - I Know

19

27

17

Jitwam - Opendoors

21

28

30

Lady Gaga - Disease

8

29

32

Blake Shelton - Texas

8

30

35

Vacations - Over You

5

31

23

Orbis Max - We Shall Rise Again

16

32

44

Barry Walsh - Rescue Me

3

33

25

Christina Taylor - Pretty Like You

10

34

42

Sir Prize and  the Twomorrow Knightz - Temptress

8

35

50

Sofi Tukker - Purple Hat

2

36

59

MOVER OF THE WEEK:


THEE SACRED SOULS

"My Heart is Drowning"

Album: Got a Story To Tell

2

37

48

Jalen Ngonda - Anyone in Love

3

38

33

Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy)

24

39

36

Gotts Street Park ft Pip Millett - Got To Be Good

22

40

31

Øff Guard - North Star

14

41

46

Menehan Street Band - Queens Highway

5

42

37

Sylvia Johns Ritchie -I Don't Care Who Knows ( I Love My Baby)

16

43

41

The Wombats - Sorry I'm Late, I Didn't Want To Come

7

44

38

Doyle Wood and Terri Gore - Feels Like Love To Me

17

45

49

Dexter and the Moonrocks - Sad in Carolina

8

46

53

I-42 Band - Love Comes Knocking

3

47

45

The Struts - Can't Stop Talking

7

48

34

Rivermist - Jukebox Jenny

12

49

55

Gizmo Varillas - Paraiso

3

50

63

Lainey Wilson - 4X4XU

2

51

64

SZA - BMF

2

52

51

Moon Soul - I Really Do

4

53

39

Sabrina Carpenter - Taste

11

54

43

Billie Eilish - Birds of a Feather

18

55

60

Seth Storer- Hungover You

3

56

65

Kate Hudson - Talk About Love

2

57

56

Pip Millett - Have Your Babies

3

58

70

Jim Quick and Coastline ft Albert Rogers- Hustlin'

2

59

72

Sabrina Carpenter - Bed Chem

2

60

--- 

TOP DEBUT:


BEACH WEATHER

"Seth Cohen"

(Single Release)

1

61

40

Melinda Lindner - Come on A Sleighride

8

62

62

Michael Kiwanuka - The Rest of Me

3

63

68

SupaPurple - This Is Our House

3

64

67

Jelly Roll - Liar

3

65

73

Jitwam -I'm A Rock

2

66

--- 

Moon Soul - Love Again

1

67

47

Starbuck - Jones About You

21

68

--- 

Juliet Callahan - YUM

1

69

--- 

Samizdat - Plenty of Old Shoes

1

70

78

Shaboozey - Good News

2

71

69

Beabadoobee - Beaches

18

72

 ---

The Offspring - OK, But This is the Last Time

1

73

57

Thee Sacred Souls - Live For You

20

74

77

Sharon Van Etten - Afterliife

3

75

--- 

Cage the Elephant - Metaverse

1

76

--- 

Calypso Joe and the Coconuts - Me Myself and the Blues

1

77

--- 

Sam Fender - People Watching

1

78

52

Nathaniel Rateliff and the Night Sweats - Call Me (Whatever You Like)

8

79

--- 

Lola Young - Messy

1

80

61

Gary Lowder and Smokin' Hot - Driving Me Out of Her Mind

15

81

79

Pale Jay  - Simple Days

3

82

85

Paige Kennedy - Life in Fear

2

83

--- 

The Lumineers - Same Old Song

1

84

71

The Pozers - Missing You (Missing Me)

19

85

75

The Black Keys - Don't Let Me Go

20

86

76

The Black Keys - I Forgot To Be Your Lover

20

87

66

Nikki Briar - Free Fallin'

19

88

58

Calypso Joe and the Coconuts - Beacha' Didn't Know

18

89

--- 

Billy Strings - Gild the Lily

1

90

80

Franz Ferdinand - Audacious

14

91

81

Jalen Ngonda - Here To Stay

23

92

74

The Veils - The Ladder

12

93

83

Phantogram - Happy Again

16

94

54

Deb Browning - Christmas In the South

10

95

84

Isabella Pombrio - Avoiding Highways

13

96

82

Kelly Clarkson - You For Christmas

9

97

86

Steve Cheek - All I Want For Christmas Is a Real Good Tan

7

98

87

Bon Jovi - Living Proof

14

99

88

Sylvia Johns Ritchie and Rivermist - Down Home Old Fashioned Christmas

7

100

89

White Denim - Light On

10


Murmurs:

 

The Cure - A Fragile Thing

The On and On's - Roller Coaster

Roxanne Fontana - Melancholy and You

ROSE ft. Bruno Mars - APT

Blondshell - T&A

Royel Otis - If Our Love is Dead

The Head and the Heart - Arrow

My Morning Jacket - Time Waisted

Guster - When We Were Stars

Fontaines DC - Favorite

One Republic - Sink or Swim

Duran Duran - Evil Woman

The Marias - No One Notices

Jason Aldean - Whiskey Drink

Carly Pearce - truck on fire

Kathleen Turner Overdrive -Best Dog

The Early November - The Sand

Justice - Neverender

Franz Ferdinand - Night or Day

Mumford and Sons - Rushmore


Murmurs: Songs which are in the queue for future adds onto the Scenes ‘n’ Soundwaves 100 Playlist.


 

Songs with the greatest increase in favorite points over the prior 

 

Holiday Songs









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